We are wrapping up “A Personal Note from Cam” and look forward to sharing it with you soon — once tax season allows. In the meantime, we wanted to pass along this article from Focus Partners Advisor Solutions, originally published on March 3, 2026.
What the Iran Conflict Means for Investors
The U.S. strikes on Iranian targets mark a significant military escalation and raise the risk of a broader regional conflict, adding to an already strained geopolitical backdrop shaped by strategic competition, energy security concerns, and recurring instability.
The seriousness of this development should not be understated. At the same time, it does not represent a fundamental shift in the investment regime. Markets have operated for years amid rising geopolitical fragmentation, adapting by repricing risk while remaining focused on long-term fundamentals.
While it is too early to know how events will unfold, market reactions so far have been orderly and broadly consistent with past contained conflicts. Historically, geopolitical shocks have produced sharp but temporary volatility unless they evolve into sustained regional war.
What Is Actually Moving in the Market
Energy
Oil prices have moved sharply higher as fears of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil flows — have risen.
At a high level, oil outcomes depend on duration and severity:
• If shipping disruptions prove limited, the current risk premium will likely fade.
• If traffic is impaired but not halted, prices may remain elevated in a higher trading range.
• A sustained closure would likely push prices materially higher.
At present, markets are pricing the risk of disruption, not a confirmed, prolonged supply shock.
Precious Metals
Gold is higher, consistent with short-term hedging and flight-to-safety positioning. These flows typically reflect uncertainty rather than a shift in long-term inflation or growth expectations.
U.S. Dollar
The dollar is strengthening as global capital seeks liquidity and safety. Episodes like this continue to reinforce the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. In periods of stress, capital still moves toward U.S. assets — not away from them.
Equities
Equity markets have been comparatively muted. U.S. and European direct trade exposure to Iran is limited, and the earnings power of large global companies is largely unaffected. When long-duration growth assets hold up during geopolitical stress, it suggests investors view this as a contained risk-premium event rather than a structural economic shock.
In other words, markets are pricing uncertainty, not recession.
What History Shows
The accompanying chart illustrates the broader point. Over five decades, markets have navigated repeated geopolitical crises. Each produced volatility. None prevented long-term compounding.
Markets tend to reprice uncertainty quickly. As escalation fears subside and clarity improves, attention historically returns to earnings, growth, and policy.
The long-term trajectory will always be driven by fundamentals.
Source: S&P
Perspective for Investors
Geopolitical shocks are unsettling, but they rarely alter the structural drivers of returns: corporate earnings, innovation, productivity, and capital allocation. Reacting to short-term volatility has historically proven more damaging than the events themselves.
Our approach remains unchanged — disciplined diversification, attention to fundamentals, and a long-term mindset.
Short-term risk premiums come and go. Long-term capital compounds through them.
Should you have questions on what we have shared, please give us a call or send me an email.
Sources:
Focus Partners Advisor Weekly News, March 4, 2026.
Disclosures:
Securities offered through Cetera Wealth Services, LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFGAN Insurance Agency LLC, CA Insurance Lic# 0644976), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cetera Investment Advisers, LLC and CTA Wealth Advisors, Inc., both registered investment advisers. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
The information provided is educational and general in nature and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, specific investment, tax, or legal advice. Individuals should seek advice from their wealth advisor or other advisors before undertaking actions in response to the matters discussed. No client or prospective should assume the above information serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized individual advice.
The opinions expressed in this letter are those of Cameron M. Thornton, CFP® and Trevor M. Cole, CFP®. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Past performance does not guarantee results.
This is prepared using third party sources considered to be reliable; however, accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. The information provided will not be updated any time after the date of publication.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Cameron M. Thornton, CFP® and Trevor M. Cole, CFP® are Registered Representatives with Cetera and may be reached at www.ctawealthadvisors.com or