A Personal Note from Cam – Dated February 19, 2025
I hope you had a very happy Valentine’s Day!
Disaster Strikes Los Angeles
I originally started to pen my first Note to you for 2025 back on January 6th and was pretty much done with my thoughts the evening of January 7th. I figured I would do my final edits when I came to work on Wednesday morning, January 8, 2025.
How wrong I was!
As you are likely aware, from January 7th to January 31st, in California a series of seven destructive wildfires affected the Los Angeles metropolitan area and San Diego County.
The fires were exacerbated by prior drought conditions, low humidity, a buildup of vegetation, and hurricane-force Santa Ana winds, which in some places reached 100 miles per hour.
As of January 31, 2025, the wildfires have killed at least 29 people, forced more than 200,000 to evacuate, and destroyed more than 18,000 homes and structures. The wildfires burned over 57,000 acres of land, which is equal to a bit over 89 square miles.
Most of the damage was from the two largest fires: the Eaton Fire in Altadena and the Palisades Fire in Pacific Palisades, both of which were fully contained on January 31, 2025.
Unfortunately, CTA’s second client, a couple that started with us back in 1982, lost their home in the Eaton Fire. They are in good spirits and feel blessed to have a second home to live in while they decide on next steps associated with rebuilding.
Our daughter and her family had to evacuate their Pasadena home the evening of January 7th and were roommates for a solid month. They are grateful they finished all mitigation work and were able to move back into their home on February 7th.
The first week and a half were stressful because of all the unknown factors they were dealing with. Things became more normal as communications opened up with their insurance company and government and city officials.
From a grandparent’s perspective, it was fun watching two of our grandsons, one age five and the other age three, up close and personal. Boy, how young children change right before your eyes!
My heart aches for many friends who lost their homes and businesses due to the wildfires.
If you have been impacted, or if you have family or friends that have been impacted, Trevor and I would be more than happy to be of assistance. Please give us a call.
We Live in Challenging Times
Today is no different from hundreds of years ago in that humans continue to struggle to bridge differences, to listen with open minds and hearts.
Since President Trump took the oath of office and became president a few short weeks ago, both Trevor and I have had phone calls from clients concerned about what they have heard or read in the social media about his actions and agenda.
After listening to each and every concern, we share our opinion that over the long-term, it makes limited difference if a Democrat or Republican sits in the Oval Office.
We share, based on our experience, that the financial markets move up and the markets move down. Interest rates move up and interest rates move down. Inflation moves up and inflation moves down. Couples get married, have children and plan for their children’s education. Folks plan on retirement and special occasions. Some people divorce or choose to live a single life. Some reinvent the person they want to be. Some become disabled and some die much too soon. In other words, life happens and it is our job to help you focus on the things that matter the most to you.
Who the president is really does not matter in the long-term.
For those interested, we highly recommend that you take the time to read recent books written about the current president.
For example, if you have not read “Trump – The Art of the Deal” (1987) or “The United States of Trump” (Bill O’Reilly, 2019), I recommend you do so. Both books will help you better understand the bluster of Trump, the man.
We also share we do not depend on any form of social media for how we access or process news. We do not trust what we read on X, see posted on Facebook, Instagram, or for that matter, any other social media or app-driven site. How about you?
We have found that the louder the headlines, the harder it is to separate fact from hysteria. What do you think?
I have formed these opinions based on the experience I have gained in my 43 years as a financial advisor. Trevor has been with me for 29 years. So, between us, we have 72 years of hands-on experience helping you reach you financial goals.
It is our responsibility to help you navigate what is going on in the world around us. We can’t do that without your help by staying in touch with us.
As it relates to President Trump, I love his deregulation policies. I love his intended tax cuts. I love his plan to make the U.S. government more efficient.
But I do not like his tariffs one bit. Candidly, I think he uses the word “tariff” as the starting point for something he wants to negotiate.
A U.S. tariff is a tax paid by American consumers, not foreign businesses.
American tariffs raise prices and stoke inflation, not only increasing the cost of imported goods but requiring domestic companies to raise prices on their own products without losing market share.
They also lead to retaliatory actions overseas. Foreign governments come under immediate pressure to put taxes on U.S. exports in return, potentially sparking a trade war.
In an email I received a few days ago from Codie Sanchez with Contrarian Thinking, the official reason behind Trumps’s tariffs was not even much about trade imbalances or manufacturing – it was about fentanyl.
The official name of his executive order? “Imposing Duties to Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our National Border.”[1] The message: Do your part to address this, and maybe the tariffs go away.
Trump is not exactly subtle when it comes to negotiating, and financial analysts were already estimating this move was a temporary one:
“In light of their potential economic effects and the fact that the White House has set general conditions for their removal, we think it is more likely that the tariffs will be temporary, but the outlook is unclear.”
Translation? Smart money was assuming this could be a flex, suggesting the administration sees tariffs not as less of a long-term trade policy but more as a short-term bargaining lever.
And that is exactly what happened the week of February 3rd. It was tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, and eventually the European Union…except the Mexican and Canadian fronts of the trade war were postponed a month. And the next day China and the EU were also postponed.
I think this might be how this plan plays out:
- Create a lever, but don’t pull it. Threaten tariffs, and watch as markets, business, and foreign leaders enter crisis mode. Think about this for a second. Tariffs were threatened and before they were implemented, they were postponed for 30 days. This provides more time to negotiate behind closed doors.
- Force a reaction. Give a deadline, call out bluffs, do not budge, and watch Mexico, China and Canada rush to the table to avoid economic pain. This has been done.
- Find the off-ramps. Get these countries to agree to something tangible. As Sun Tzu said, “Give your enemy a golden bridge on which to retreat.” This is in process.
- Claim victory. Best case? Signs new trade deals and border protection agreements. There’s a real impact, and the economic crisis never actually comes to fruition.
If you have any questions on what I have shared in this Note, please call the office. We look forward to talking with you at any time.
Trevor and our entire CTA Wealth team joins me in hoping that 2025 is a year full of blessings for you and your loved ones!
Very truly yours,
Cam Thornton
Certified Financial Planner™
Footnotes:
[1]https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/
Disclosures:
Securities offered through Cetera Advisor Networks LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFGAN Insurance Agency LLC, CA Insurance License # 0644976), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cetera Investment Advisers LLC, a registered investment adviser. Additional Advisory services offered through CTA Wealth Advisors, Inc., a registered investment adviser. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity. CA Insurance License # 0650910.
The information provided is not a complete analysis of every material fact and are subject to change.
The opinions contained in this material are those of the author, and not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell investment products. This information is from sources believed to be reliable, but Cetera Advisor Networks LLC cannot guarantee or represent that it is accurate or complete.
For a comprehensive review of your personal situation, always consult with a tax or legal advisor. Neither Cetera Advisor Networks LLC nor any of its representatives may give legal or tax advice.
Websites provided as a courtesy and are not under the control of Cetera Advisor Networks LLC or CTA Wealth Advisors, Inc.
Cameron M. Thornton, CFP® is a Registered Representative with Cetera Advisor Networks LLC and may be reached at www.ctawealthadvisors.com or
(818) 841-1746.
Footnotes:
[1]https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/imposing-duties-to-address-the-flow-of-illicit-drugs-across-our-national-border/