A Moment of Hope
If all you knew about the war in Iran is what you read or listen to in the American and European press, you might conclude that the U.S. has never prosecuted a war so ineptly as it has this one.
Iran’s rulers have been on the job for almost two months their predecessors having died on February 28th. The U.S. has destroyed most of Iran’s navy and neutered what remains of it. Its air defenses no longer exist. A large part of its ballistic missiles has been used, destroyed or damaged; and its capacity to build more is questionable. Iran’s nuclear program—central to the regime’s identity—lies under rubble. Israeli strikes have inflicted havoc on the Islamic Republic’s internal repression apparatus. The regime’s terrorist proxies appear quiet or on the run, suggesting a shortage of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders telling them what to do.
Most of America’s and Europe’s news media continue to sift through the details to find evidence of U.S. incompetence. The administration didn’t plan for missile and drone strikes on its bases. The war benefits Russia. It benefits China. War planners didn’t count on Iran’s closing the Strait of Hormuz. On and on.
Certainly, these claims deserve attention. In battle, no matter how good your intelligence, things change, and you need the capability to pivot on a moment’s notice.
The war obliged the U.S. to ease sanctions on Russian oil, but the destruction of Russia’s chief client in the Middle East creates problems for Moscow that far outweigh any short-term boost in oil revenue.
The complaint that a war in Iran “distracts” the U.S. from Chinese aggression rests on the truism that a nation’s attention is finite: All wars distract.
As for the strait, its remaining open would have been the real surprise.
I assume the bulk of this relentless pessimism stems from the belief, familiar after a decade, that whatever Donald Trump does must lead to disaster. That’s a sorry way to get at the truth.
It also makes it look as if the media is hoping for something tragic to happen to our American troops, so they can make it a gotcha for the president.1
More From the Media
I read an article in the April 18, 2026 edition of The New York Times, in the “Iran War Live Updates,” under a headline claiming “Iran’s Military Says It Has Reimposed ‘Strict Control’ of Strait of Hormuz.”
I scratched my head. I have an inquiring mind and asked myself, “What Iran military?” Unless every picture and video I have looked at since February 28th when Operation Epic Fury began is an AI fake, something was off with what was being reported.
It is certainly possible that some in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are still making threats. The capability to lob missiles and other ordnance at ships in the strait is still something that has not been completely eliminated, as the IRGC may still have a number of fast-attack boats operational.
If the order is given for the U.S. Navy to eliminate the threat of these fast-attack boats, I do not think it will take long for our navy to neuter this threat.
While the world has been focused on the situation in Iran, the United States and our diplomatic team signed a defense agreement with Morocco concerning the Strait of Gibraltar, which is the chokepoint between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.
Likewise, the U.S. executed an agreement with Indonesia granting “expanded operational access” over the Strait of Malacca, through which 80 percent of China’s oil imports flow.
As you might recall, last year, President Trump and his team negotiated the neutrality of the Panama Canal, sidelining the Chinese companies that had quietly stepped in to manage the canal.
In just over a year, President Trump has opened the world’s major chokepoints under the aegis of American oversight. It is important to take a wait-and-see approach to what ultimately happens with the Strait of Hormuz.2
The Great Reset
Not long ago, during COVID, Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum published a book titled “COVID-19: The Great Reset.” Politicians around the world, including Boris Johnson, Angela Merkel, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and others talked about “Building Back Better,” which was a euphemism for The Great Reset.
The platform included Green Energy and the Paris Agreement, Open Borders, Global Taxes, International Cooperation, and Sustainable Development. While a generalization…it seems clear the
supporters of Build Back Better wanted even more government spending and more bureaucratic control.
Over recent decades, bureaucracies (the EU, UN, NATO, WHO, the US administrative state) have all increased control over free markets because they believe capitalism hurts the environment and creates inequality. Second, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have actively attempted to undermine the U.S. and its capitalist system. And third, cartels and gangs have proliferated, some fielding armies.
In other words, there are three sets of institutions or groups trying to reset the world and put roadblocks in the way of capitalism.They want a Great Reset that gives them more power.
But the U.S., in its 250th year, seems to reaching back to its roots. The U.S. is saying “no” to bureaucrats and corruption in international organizations, and “no” to terrorism and cartels who are willing to use violence to get their way.
Back in 1908, the U.S. founded the Bureau of Investigation (BOI), the precursor to the FBI, to fight corruption in government and then shifted to fighting gangsters and the mafia.
Similarly, recent actions are designed to fight the enemies of freedom today. If there is a common theme running through the action of the U.S. in the past year, it is fighting back against the institutions, governments, and entities which want to undermine capitalism. That would be a really Great Reset.3
The American Dream
What are the necessary steps to live the American Dream?
I believe the Dream has a financial component. The key is to work hard, live beneath your means, save the difference, maximize your investment returns, and let compounding work its magic over time.
Despite the many problems and challenges our society faces, Americans live in the most meritocratic nation on earth at the greatest moment in history to be alive.
Thank goodness, the American Dream is not an entitlement that you collect at some government office.
It’s a goal…an aspiration…a lifelong achievement that requires effort, determination and a bit of fortitude. But the rewards are many. Not least of all, you get to enjoy a lifestyle where money is no longer a concern.
Helping you reach your own Dream is one of the biggest gifts of my life work.
Should you have questions on what I have shared in this Note, please give Trevor or me a call.
Best wishes,
Cam
1 A Mideast Moment of Hope – Barton Swaim – The Wall Street Journal – April 1, 2026
2 The Geopolitics of Epic Fury – Roger Kimball – American Greatness – April 19, 2026
3 The Great Reset – Brian S. Wesbury, Chief Economist – First Trust Advisors, L.P. – March 2, 2026
Disclosures:
Securities offered through Cetera Wealth Services, LLC (doing insurance business in CA as CFGAN Insurance Agency LLC, CA Insurance Lic# 0644976), member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Cetera Investment Advisers, LLC and CTA Wealth Advisors, Inc., both registered investment advisers. Cetera is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
The information provided is educational and general in nature and is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, specific investment, tax, or legal advice. Individuals should seek advice from their wealth advisor or other advisors before undertaking actions in response to the matters discussed. No client or prospective should assume the above information serves as the receipt of, or substitute for, personalized individual advice.
The opinions expressed in this letter are those of Cameron M. Thornton, CFP®. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance information is historical and not indicative of future results. Past performance does not guarantee results.
This is prepared referencing third party sources considered to be reliable; however, accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. The information provided will not be updated any time after the date of publication.
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Cameron M. Thornton, CFP® and Trevor M. Cole, CFP® are Registered Representatives with Cetera and may be reached at www.ctawealthadvisors.com or (818) 841-1746.